To forecast Nigeria’s post-election political stability
Stratfor experts have predicted four possible scenarios.
Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides
strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and
organizations around the world. By placing global
events in a geopolitical framework, they help customers
anticipate opportunities and better understand
international developments.
The experts say that Jonathan has now not only served
out the presidencies intended for the North-West region
for the 2007-2011 and 2011-2015 terms, but his supporters
now argue he is eligible for another term since he was
elected president only once, in 2011.
The analysts’ point is that Jonathan and his Niger
Delta constituency have already usurped the presidency,
and are threatening to upend the zoning agreement by
seeking another four-year term. That is why
dissatisfaction with Jonathan means the 2015 national
elections are the first time Nigeria has a real possibility
of a peaceful democratic transition from one party to
another. According to the Stratfor, there are four
plausible electoral outcomes.
1. An Uncontested Jonathan Re-election
Stratfor states that Jonathan and the PDP could
manage to overcome criticism from the APC over
perceptions of his threatening the zoning agreement and
poor handling of the economy. In this case the new
Jonathan’s government would have to enact economic
austerity so long as crude oil revenues are low.
Furthermore counterinsurgency operations against
Boko Haram would receive modest political support
insufficient to defeat the militant group entirely. This
scenario would result in essentially a status quo policy
outcome.
“Moving forward, were Jonathan to be handily re-
elected but the National Assembly receive a divided
vote, he would face difficulties in passing legislation,
particularly on hot-button issues such as fuel subsidies.
An austere spending plan would make Jonathan
unpopular before too long. One potential result from an
undisputed Jonathan win, however, would be a PDP
initiative to try to draw APC members back. Success
is not guaranteed, but the Jonathan administration’s
access to state resources would provide incentive,” the
organisation explains.
2. A Disputed Jonathan Re-election
In this scenario, Jonathan’s win is tight enough raise
doubts about its validity, meaning he would have to
govern in the face of considerable political opposition.The
research notes that combined with an underperforming
economy and the Boko Haram insurgency, Jonathan
might not manage to complete a full four-year term,
perhaps resigning or facing constitutional or extra-
constitutional removal from office.
Stratfor supposes that because of insecurity as a result
of the Boko Haram insurgency, considerable parts of
northeastern Nigeria might be unable to vote. Indeed,
Stratfor observers report that the APC fears a
meaningful number of pro-APC voters will be
disenfranchised because of Boko Haram fighting. While
the Nigerian military has secured a number of urban
areas in northeastern Nigeria previously controlled by
Boko Haram, it is unclear whether conditions will be
ready to hold elections in this region. And even if voting
does occur, the registration process ahead of the elections
has already been significantly disrupted.
“The confrontation between the opposition and the
Jonathan administration and its supporters would rise to
levels unseen since 1999 and could even become violent.
Though civil war would be unlikely, political gridlock
would be.How long Jonathan remains in office in such
circumstances would probably depend on how the
economy performs, which in turn depends on external
factors, particularly the price of oil, and on how well
the counterinsurgency campaign against Boko Haram
goes. The counterinsurgency campaign has received
improved political and military support in the final weeks
leading up to the national elections. Whether sustaining
a counterinsurgency will be a priority for Jonathan once
the pressure of winning re-election is off, however, is
unclear".
3. A Disputed Buhari Victory
In this plausible scenario, Stratfor describes, northern
Nigeria will be pleased with the outcome, but concerns
would arise regarding stability in the oil-producing
Niger Delta region. The experts think that while
Buhari can expect significant voter support in northern
Nigeria and in the South-West region, Jonathan has
supporters in pockets throughout Nigeria, though his base
is in the South-South and South-East. A Buhari
victory would raise fears in the delta that could lead to
violence if Jonathan supporters believed Buhari won via
fraud.
“Moreover, Jonathan supporters, especially in the delta
region, would be ready to rebel if the region saw its
patronage appointments curtailed. With scarce
government resources to meet the demands of the
southwest and the north, Buhari would be pressed to
placate Niger Delta militants, who have become
accustomed to influence in Abuja. In view of this risk,
Buhari made Rivers state Gov. Rotimi Amaechi, the
leader of Nigeria’s largest oil and natural gas producing
state, to be his campaign manager. Buhari would most
likely give Amaechi a senior Cabinet position, a perch
from which he could seek to pacify Niger Delta
militants. Placating the South-South region would
require similar appointments to government positions,”
the forecast shows.
4. An Uncontested Buhari Election
In this unlikely scenario, according to the analytical
institution, Buhari would concentrate on reining in the
Boko Haram insurgency, implement spending discipline
and curtail the unaccounted spending that Cabinet
ministers and government officials enjoyed under
Jonathan.
The authors predict that Buhari would also incorporate
Niger Delta interests into his government and likely
assign Amaechi to a Cabinet position, though the
economy and security would be higher priorities.
They forecast Jonathan meanwhile would continue to
find support. He would get support from his home
South-South region, from those who benefited
financially from his government, and from other ethnic
groups who oppose Buhari, who is often seen as the sort
of Hausa-Fulani military autocrat.
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